Fight Night 168 Odds

Fight Night 168 Odds

on
Just last week at UFC Fight Night 168, Marley told SportsLine members to support hometown favorite Dan Hooker (-150) against Paul Felder (+130) in a matchup of rugged ranked lightweights in the. In MMA, the sportsbook sets a total (usually 1.5 rounds for a three-round fight or 2.5 rounds for a five-round fight) and you get to bet whether the fight will be finished before that time or after that time. So if you bet the McGregor-Alvarez fight to go UNDER 2.5 rounds. On Saturday, February 22 nd, the UFC will be live with an international event held at the Spark Arena in Auckland, New Zealand, for UFC Fight Night 168 also known as UFC Fight Night: Felder vs Hooker, UFC on ESPN+ 26, and UFC Auckland. The main event of the show is a lightweight battle between Paul Felder and Dan Hooker. The winner will crack the Top 5 rankings in the division and be one.
On Saturday, February 22nd, the UFC will be live from the Spark Arena in Auckland, New Zealand, for UFC Fight Night 168 also known as UFC on ESPN+ 26, UFC Fight Night: Felder vs Hooker, and UFC Fight Night Auckland.
UFC Fight Night 168 features 13 total fights, but we will only be focusing on the seven fight preliminary card that is set to begin at 4 PM ET on ESPN+. This portion of the card features some regional talent and prospects that are beginning to gain some recognition.
Sports betting sites have released odds for the entire Fight Night prelim fights. Let's step inside the octagon to examine these UFC Fight Night 168 betting odds courtesy of 5Dimes, identify any potential value, and KO our predictions.
As of this writing, there are no Over/Under betting options. However, we do have prop bets for whether or not the fights will go the distance.
New Zealand's own. #UFCAucklandpic.twitter.com/gy9tM5y6if
— UFC (@ufc) February 18, 2020
Shana Dobson vs Priscila CachoeiraShana Dobson (-190)
Priscila Cachoeira (+165)
This has to be the most uninspiring matchup of the entire card. It features two fighters coming in with multiple fight losings streaks and both women on the verge of being cut from the promotion.
Cachoeira has to be one of the most disappointing fighters on the entire UFC roster. She enters this contest on a three fight losing streak and also has a failed drug test along the way. Her UFC debut in February 2018 was a disaster against Valentina Shevchenko and it hasn't improved much since then.

Cachoeira was 8-0 before entering the octagon. She appears to be way out of her league with the UFC. Her wins are equally split between TKO/KO victories and decisions.
Shana Dobson is on a two fight losing streak after winning her UFC debut in December 2017. However, she's only fought two times since then and both were decision defeats. Although Cachoeira has more wins, Dobson is still the better fighter.
Will This Fight Go the Distance?Online betting sites have this fight listed at -285 to go the distance and +205 odds to finish inside the distance. When looking at the two resumes, we can see that they have a combined 11 decisions in 17 total fights. Cachoeira is 4-2 when going the distance and Dobson is 2-3.
With that said, I believe Dobson is going to win this fight via decision (-110). She's the better striker and she will have a four inch reach advantage. Cachoeira isn't a technical striker and will look to navigate punches to try and land a power shot.
With Dobson peppering Cachoeira all fight long, she should cruise to a unanimous decision win.
Shana Dobson (-190)
 Over 2.5 rounds (-160)
Fight goes to decision (-285)
Dobson wins via decision (-110)
Maki Pitolo vs Takashi SatoMaki Pitolo (-105)
Takashi Sato (-115)
This is a very close fight on paper and with oddsmakers. Whichever fighter you choose, there will be betting value.
Maki Pitolo is the slight underdog and is making his second trip inside the octagon as he lost his UFC debut in October to Callan Potter who's also on the prelims of this event. Pitolo earned his contract by winning on DWCS in July with a 1st round TKO.
Pitolo is 3-1 in his last four fights and does possess some solid MMA skills. However, all of the momentum he had was squashed in his loss to Potter last October. Nine of his 12 wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO.
Takashi Sato is 1-1 inside the octagon having won his debut in April with an impressive 2nd round TKO over Ben Saunders. However, he was unable to beat Belal Muhammad in his last fight, which took place in September. Sato lost via submission in the 3rd round. He's 7-2 in his last nine fights.
12 of Sato's 15 wins have come via stoppage with 10 by way of TKO/KO. He's won six straight fights via TKO with four of them coming in the 1st round.
This Fight Won't Go the Full Three RoundsUnlike the previous fight, this one won't go the full distance (-190). These two men will look for the finish whether it's via TKO/KO or submission. Furthermore, I expect it to be a hard hitting affair that could end up being over with before the 1st round ends.
For me, I like Sato in this matchup. I believe he has the power advantage and just seems like a better fighter at this level than Pitolo does. Sato has looked like he belongs in the UFC while Pitolo looked like he was a junior varsity athlete competing against varsity athletes.
I'm taking Sato to win this bout inside the distance (+165) via TKO/KO. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a first round knockout.
Takashi Sato (-115)
 Fight doesn't go the distance (-190)
Sato wins inside the distance (+165)

Cachoeira was 8-0 before entering the octagon. She appears to be way out of her league with the UFC. Her wins are equally split between TKO/KO victories and decisions.
Shana Dobson is on a two fight losing streak after winning her UFC debut in December 2017. However, she's only fought two times since then and both were decision defeats. Although Cachoeira has more wins, Dobson is still the better fighter.
Will This Fight Go the Distance?Online betting sites have this fight listed at -285 to go the distance and +205 odds to finish inside the distance. When looking at the two resumes, we can see that they have a combined 11 decisions in 17 total fights. Cachoeira is 4-2 when going the distance and Dobson is 2-3.
With that said, I believe Dobson is going to win this fight via decision (-110). She's the better striker and she will have a four inch reach advantage. Cachoeira isn't a technical striker and will look to navigate punches to try and land a power shot.
With Dobson peppering Cachoeira all fight long, she should cruise to a unanimous decision win.
Shana Dobson (-190)
 Over 2.5 rounds (-160)
Fight goes to decision (-285)
Dobson wins via decision (-110)
Maki Pitolo vs Takashi SatoMaki Pitolo (-105)
Takashi Sato (-115)
This is a very close fight on paper and with oddsmakers. Whichever fighter you choose, there will be betting value.
Maki Pitolo is the slight underdog and is making his second trip inside the octagon as he lost his UFC debut in October to Callan Potter who's also on the prelims of this event. Pitolo earned his contract by winning on DWCS in July with a 1st round TKO.
Pitolo is 3-1 in his last four fights and does possess some solid MMA skills. However, all of the momentum he had was squashed in his loss to Potter last October. Nine of his 12 wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO.
Takashi Sato is 1-1 inside the octagon having won his debut in April with an impressive 2nd round TKO over Ben Saunders. However, he was unable to beat Belal Muhammad in his last fight, which took place in September. Sato lost via submission in the 3rd round. He's 7-2 in his last nine fights.
12 of Sato's 15 wins have come via stoppage with 10 by way of TKO/KO. He's won six straight fights via TKO with four of them coming in the 1st round.
This Fight Won't Go the Full Three RoundsUnlike the previous fight, this one won't go the full distance (-190). These two men will look for the finish whether it's via TKO/KO or submission. Furthermore, I expect it to be a hard hitting affair that could end up being over with before the 1st round ends.
For me, I like Sato in this matchup. I believe he has the power advantage and just seems like a better fighter at this level than Pitolo does. Sato has looked like he belongs in the UFC while Pitolo looked like he was a junior varsity athlete competing against varsity athletes.
I'm taking Sato to win this bout inside the distance (+165) via TKO/KO. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a first round knockout.
Takashi Sato (-115)
 Fight doesn't go the distance (-190)
Sato wins inside the distance (+165)
Loma Lookboonmee vs Angela HillLoma Lookboonme (+170)
Angela Hill (-190)
This fight was originally scheduled to have Hannah Goldy take on Loma Lookboonme, but Goldy withdrew from the bout due to injury. Angela Hill steps in on short notice.
Loma was a -225 betting favorite over Goldy, but is now a sizable underdog at +170 against her replacement opponent Angela Hill. Loma has won two straight fights including her UFC debut last October when she beat Albu via split decision.
Loma made the move up to 115 pounds as she typically fought at 105 pounds. Although it worked for her in her first UFC fight, I have a hard time seeing it work for her in this weekend's contest. She's giving up two inches of height and three inches of reach advantage to Hill.
Angela Hill fought a few weeks ago and won via TKO over Hannah Cifers. She's won three of her last four fights and is turning things around inside the octagon. Overall, she has a 5-5 record with the UFC. For Hill, she's either scoring knockouts or going the distance in her fights.
In her 11 wins, Hill has five TKO/KO victories and six by way of decision. In her losses, she has five decision losses. Overall, Hill has gone the distance in 11 of her 18 pro fights with a record of 6-5.
When you look over their records, you will see that they have a combined 14 fights go the full distance out of 23 total fights. I see this contest going the distance as well (-265). Additionally, I like Hill to win this contest via decision (+115).
Hill will have the size, reach, power and experience advantages over Loma. Additionally, she's the better striker and could even end this fight inside the distance (+185) via TKO/KO (+305). However, take the smart play here and go with Hill to win via decision.
Angela Hill (-190)
 Fight goes the distance (-265),
Hill to win via decision (+115)
Kai Kara-France vs Tyson NamKai Kara-France (-260)
Tyson Nam (+220)
Tyson Nam is a sizable underdog for this fight as he steps inside the octagon for the second time. Nam made his UFC debut in September , but lost via unanimous decision to Sergio Pettis. He's 4-2 in his last six fights and has fought in three different promotions over that span.
For Nam, 10 of his 18 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. 15 of his 29 pro fights have gone the distance and he is 7-7-1 in those contests.
I'm a bit surprised that Kai Kara-France is on the preliminary card considering he's from Auckland and is a solid fighter. Although he lost his last fight via unanimous decision, France is 3-1 inside the octagon and has won eight of his last nine contests.
He's also the #8 ranked flyweight and the only ranked fighter on the preliminary portion of this UFC event. 12 of his 20 pro wins have come via stoppage with nine by way of TKO/KO. 12 of his 29 pro fights have gone the distance and he's 8-4 in those contests.
For Kai, it doesn't matter that he's on the prelims because he was going to be on this card no matter what:
'Mick Maynard, the matchmaker, said he was reserving me a spot before my last fight. Injured or not, he asked my coach if Kai wants this fight, and I was going to take it injured or not. I have to be a part of this card. I remember being in the front row when UFC was in Auckland in 2015, I saw the atmosphere and I visualized me fighting there.'
As you can see, these two men have a combined 27 fights go the distance. That's why oddsmakers favor this fight to go to decision as well (-210). Six of France's last seven fights have gone the distance including four straight while three of Nam's last four fights have gone to decision.
I believe we will see a full three rounds unless Kai Kara-France can pull off a TKO/KO win in front of his fellow countrymen. If we see some shuffling of the card then I wouldn't be surprised if the UFC moves this fight to the main card.
Take Kai Kara-France to win this bout via unanimous decision (-110). France has a higher output, is more aggressive, can take a punch, and can take this fight to the mat if needed. He has multiple paths to victory while Nam is hoping for a knockout shot to win.
Fight week has arrived! Loyal to the soil, we go to war for our people! ⚔️?? #ufcaucklandpic.twitter.com/aUkO560b2E
— Kai Kara France (@kaikarafrance) February 16, 2020
Kai Kara-France (-260)
 Fight goes the distance (-210)
Kai Kara-France to win via decision (-110)
Callan Potter vs Song KenanCallan Potter (+170)
Song Kenan (-200)
Potter has alternated between wins and losses over the last two years and is 1-1 inside the octagon. He lost his debut fight one year ago via 1st round TKO to Jalin Turner who is also on this card. However, Potter did take this fight on short notice.
16 of his 18 pro wins have come via stoppage with 10 by way of submission. He's only gone the distance in two of this 26 pro fights.
Song Kenan made his UFC debut in November 2017 and won via KO in 15 seconds. He's gone 3-1 inside the octagon with his last fight coming in August. 13 of his 15 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of TKO/KO.
Amazing money machine slot machine. The odds favor this fight not going the distance (-160). That's largely due to each man either stopping their opponent or being stopped themselves in the majority of their contests. For Song, just five of his 20 pro fights have gone the distance and Potter's only seen the scorecards in two fights.
So, I believe it's smart to take this fight finishing inside the full three rounds. From there, Kenan is a -110 favorite to win inside the distance and Potter is +495.
Potter has dropped eight fights with all of them being via stoppage and equally split via TKO/KO and submission. His last two losses have come via TKO in a combined two minutes and two seconds. Song has also suffered two TKO/KO losses. But, only one has come in the last five years.
I not only like Song to win this fight, I believe he will do so before the 3rd round. The only question is whether he gets the submission or the knockout. I lean towards a 2nd round TKO victory for Song.
Song Kenan (-200)
 Fight doesn't go to decision (-160)
Song wins inside the distance (-110)
Jake Matthews vs Emil MeekJake Matthews (-230)
Emil Meek (+190)
Australia's Jake Matthews takes on Norway's Emil Meek in a hard hitting welterweight fight. Meek is the underdog and rightfully so. Meek has lost two straight fights and is only 1-2 inside the octagon.
He's mostly a power puncher with very little ground game. Seven of his nine pro wins have come via TKO/KO. However, he's also lost two fights via TKO/KO.
Matthews has won four of his last five fights and is 8-4 with the UFC. He has more of a balance in standup and ground games than Meek does. 11 of his 15 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of submission.
Two of Matthews' four losses came via submission. Fortunately, I don't see him having to worry about it in this fight. Matthews is the better grappler and Meek is virtually a non-threat in that department. In fact, Matthews' best chance at winning will be to take this fight to the mat.
Matthews shared his opinions of how he thinks this upcoming fight will play out:
'The tipping-point will be who can brawl, but who can remain composed. And I definitely think I'm the smarter fighter. Once he gets into a brawl, it's just everything letting go. I can watch and still be calculated when I'm having a scrap. I'm also the better grappler, I can get down and wrestle but am pretty confident in the stand up.'
Will They Brawl for All Three Rounds? Online betting sites are favoring these two fighters to go the full distance (-195). For most of this preliminary card, I have agreed with the oddsmakers. However, I disagree with this one as I believe there's too much firepower for this fight to go all three rounds.
I believe that these two brawlers have the potential to end the fight early (+155). Whether Matthews stays upright or goes to the mat, he can end this inside the distance (+325). Meek is listed at +405 odds to win inside the distance. These are some really juicy odds.
I like Matthews to win this fight and do so inside the full three rounds. Additionally, I really like him to score a TKO/KO whether it's standing up or via ground and pound. This bout will be a contender for one of the fight night bonuses.
Fight Night 168 Odds Ncaa BasketballJake Matthews (-230)
 Fight ends inside the distance (+155)
Matthews wins inside the distance (+325)
Joshua Culibao vs Jalin TurnerJoshua Culibao (+170)
Jalin Turner (-200)
Fight Night 168 Odds For TodayThis fight was originally set to be Jalin Turner taking on Australia's Jamie Mullarkey. Unfortunately, Mullarkey withdrew from the fight due to an injury. Fellow Australian, and teammate to Mullarkey, Joshua Culibao is stepping in on less than three weeks' notice.
Culibao is unbeaten in his career and making his UFC debut on Saturday. Five of his eight pro wins have come via TKO/KO and only three of his fights have gone the distance. He will have a tough matchup in Jalin Turner.
Turner is on the last fight of his UFC contract and needs a statement win to earn a new deal. In fact, he's labeling this fight as a do or die situation:
'This is make or break right here. This is do-or-die. There are people who have left and came back but I don't want to go that route. I just want to win. Just win, keep my contract. I've been training since I got done with my physical therapy. I have a lot to show the world and once I get the win I'm onto the next.'
Turner has been a disappointment at times. He has the skills to succeed in the octagon, but has come up short in two of his three fights, which coincides with his 1-2 record in the octagon. Nicknamed 'The Tarantula,' Turner needs a win or he will be redubbed 'The Ghost' because he will disappear from the UFC.
Combined, these two fighters have 12 knockouts in 21 total fights. Turner has suffered three TKO/KO losses in his career with one of them coming to Vicente Luque in his UFC debut. However, I don't see Culibao being as good of a striker as Luque.
Ufc Fight Night 168 Betting OddsSomeone is going to get the stoppage here as I don't believe this contest is going to the mat for extended periods of time. I also don't see this fight going the distance (-170).
Turner is listed at +110 odds to get the victory inside the distance while Culibao is listed at +360 odds. For me, I am leaning towards Turner here. I believe his desperation will push him to win. I also believe his six inch height advantage and almost equal reach advantage will also go a long way towards victory.
Give me Turner via TKO before the final bell rings.
Jalin Turner (-200),
 Fight doesn't go the distance (-170),
Turner wins inside the distance (+110)
Final Thoughts on UFC Fight Night 168 Prelim CardThe UFC Auckland prelim card offers more appealing betting action than it does action inside the octagon. There are a few matchups that just don't interest me. However, I expect the fans to go crazy for their regional fighters.
I'm still perplexed as to how the UFC could put the 8th ranked flyweight Kai Kara-France on the prelim card. He's the only ranked fighter on the prelims and he's fighting in his hometown.
To make things worse, he's not even booked in the main fight of the prelims. They've reserved that spot for the undeserving Turner vs Culibao matchup, which has no appeal to anyone outside of their respective camps.
As for the betting action, there are plenty of options even without the Over/Unders and other prop bets, which most likely won't be available until closer to fight night. How does a bookie work. However, there's still plenty of value on this card and with most of the scheduled fights.
Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus.The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is coming back to Australia mate! Home town boy Dan Hooker will take centre stage at the Spark Arena in Auckland, Australia. I smell a few dog's barking in this event, let's kick-start our week with some UFC underdog betting picks.
Callan Potter vs. Song KenanSaturday, February 22, 2020 – 05:35 PM EST
Opening line: Song Kenan -185 at Betonline
Callan PotterAge: 38
Nationality: American
Record: 18-8-0
Height: 6ft'
Reach: 72'
Gym: Resilience Training Center
Notable Gym Members: Dan Kelly, Jake Matthews & Jim Crute
Current Streak: 1 win
Wins by KO/TKO: 6
Wins by Submission: 10
Decision wins: 2
Significant Strikes (UFC)Landed Per Min: 3.21
Accuracy: 51%
Defence: 59%
Grappling (UFC)Takedown Average: 2.83
Takedown Accuracy: 60%
Takedown Defended: 100%
One of Australia's finest submission experts Callan Potter won't have far to travel for his scheduled bout this coming weekend. The home support should be rampant for the BJJ Black Belt but, the task at hand won't be an easy one. Dangerous striker Kenan Song will be headhunting the experienced grappler from the get-go.
It's not often the UFC will offer contract's to fighters in their mid-30's but, Callan and his impressive win rate became an acceptation. The 35-year-old hasn't had the brightest beginning to his journey in the UFC but he's shown the will to win via his strong grappling offense.
Song KenanAge: 29
Nationality: China
Record: 15-5-0
Height: 6ft'
Reach: 71.5'
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
Notable Gym Members: Valentina Shevchenko, Petr Yan & Rustam Khabilov
Current Streak: 1 win
Wins by KO/TKO: 7
Wins by Submission: 6
Decision wins: 2
Significant Strikes (UFC)Landed Per Min: 4.13
Accuracy: 45%
Defence: 56%
Grappling (UFC)Takedown Average: 0
Takedown Accuracy: 0%
Takedown Defended: 50%
A long rangy striker in Song has fared quite well since his UFC debut, holding a 3-1 record, with his only loss coming to Alex Morono.
Song will clearly be the more proficient and experienced striker in this contest, he'll be looking for a quick finish in his first fight overseas. The % finish rate for Song is high because of the speed he can deliver his striking offense.
At the end of the dayThe current line seems slightly disrespectful in my honest opinion. Stylistically these fighters are opposite ends, Potter will understand that he needs to initiate his grappling game early and often in order to avoid the heavy hands of Song.
I believe the first round could be a competitive one but the longer this fast goes on, the more I favor Potter and his ability to lock in a submission. The game plan is quite clear and although Song can fight from his back, he hasn't shown the greatest scrambling ability when up against half-decent grapplers.
Simply put, it's a striker versus grappler matchup and I'll favor the grappler, especially at these odds.
UFC Fight Night Auckland Prediction: Callan Potter to win at +165 with Bookmaker
Jimmy Crute vs. Michal OleksiejczukSaturday, February 22, 2020 – 09:05 PM EST
Opening line: Michal Oleksiejczuk -140 at 5Dimes
Jimmy CruteAge: 28
Nationality: Australia
Record: 10-1-0
Height: 6ft 2'
Reach: 74'
Current Streak: 1 loss
Gym: Resilience Training Centre
Notable Gym Members: Dan Kelly, Jake Matthews & Callan Potter
Wins by KO/TKO: 4
Wins by Submission: 3
Decision wins: 3
Significant Strikes (UFC)Landed Per Min: 4.56
Accuracy: 57%
Defence: 53%
Grappling (UFC)Takedown Average: 0.58
Takedown Accuracy: 100%
Takedown Defended: 60%
Jimmy Crute, one of the UFC's brightest prospects makes his return to the octagon this weekend after suffering his first professional loss. His opponent is another prospect coming off his first loss in the UFC. Co-Main event status certainly deserves for this bout, Crute has looked incredible, even in his previous and first-ever loss. Crute has power, agility and a BJJ Black belt to go with it. Fast in development, Crute's striking is evolving fight to fight in order to match up with his high-level jiu-jitsu offense.
Michal OleksiejczukAge: 25
Nationality: Poland
Record: 14-3-0
Height: 6ft'
Reach: 74'
Gym: GKS Gornik Leczna MMA
Notable Gym Members: N/A
Current Streak: 1 loss
Wins by KO/TKO: 9
Wins by Submission: 1
Decision wins: 4
Significant Strikes (UFC)Landed Per Min: 5.39
Accuracy: 56%
Defence: 68%
Grappling (UFC)Takedown Average: 1.20
Takedown Accuracy: 66%
Takedown Defended: 75%
Much like his opponent, Michal has shown amazing prospect talent with a barrage of offence in his UFC scheduled bouts to date.
Michal has an aggressive start to his fights that most opponents can't handle, most recently we saw Ovince Saint Preux become one of the first to avoid the early onslaught that Michal provides. His approach doesn't tend to change matchup to matchup, so we should expect the same aggressive beginnings from Michal this weekend.
At the end of the dayAnother suggested line that I don't agree with; an even matchup favouring one over the other. Michal holds one attribute higher than Crute, aggression. I give Michal one round to get his fight over with or he'll enter the deep waters and drown.
So, with one path to victory for Michal but multiple paths for Crute, It's easy making a decision whilst looking deeper into this matchup. If Michal surprises us with a calm approach to his first-round offence he's going to lose a technical striking battle and we have to favour Crute when comparing each fighters grappling skill-set.
Crute can avoid the dangerous first round in a similar fashion to OSP, his cardio and higher-level fight IQ should do the rest.
UFC 168 Prediction: Jimmy Crute to win at +120 with BetOnline
Related Articles